I KNOW I LOST, BUT DID I MAKE THE RIGHT MOVE?

[captain#5]

The Ram/Baltimore game at half was 21-19 Rams.Watching the game in the 2nd quarter when the score was 14-0,I said if the Rams end up at 14 points or score NO offensive TD for the rest of the half, Baltimore will beat this team.Then in the final minutes of the half acouple of major things happened.Heap looked like he got really banged up and Boller was limping like a dog on 3 feet.And Boller really looked like he was hurting bad.So with these KEY injuries and the Rams are up by 2 at half.What should the line be for the 2nd half? You only have 12 minutes to bet.Well the odds makers know more than us.The line for the game is 7.The Rams are up 2 and they are favored only by 3? This means they have to win by 5.Why were they not 4 or 5 or 5.5 point favs in the 2nd half? With key injuries for the Ravens how could this be?
I proceeded to bang out the Ravens plus +3 points.The UNDER 21.5 for the 2nd half I had down to play and did, but small.I pounded the Ravens +3 and got my ass handed to me.Afer the game and today I am alittle gun shy to play a game for a few weeks.The Ravens took alot of winning kitty away for the year.

But did I make the right move to make the bet regardless that the Rams got the cover?Just wondering what the thoughts are,thanks?

 

[LSUpete]

You made the right move.

The only reason the Rams covered that second half is because That dumbass Billick didn't have Redmond prepared to win the game. It was EASY to see that Redmond was nervous and tentative coming off the bench in the second half and it cost the Ravens the game. This REALLY pisses me off, because from what I've heard the Balt. fans have been calling for Redmond to start all year......so he should have been fired up about getting his chance. So, either cut that douche-bag loose or get his ass ready to win a game.

 

[BlackampGold]

Captain - I had the EXACT same thought process as you and I made the exact same play because of it. Even worse, Pinnacle's 2nd half line was 1.5 which I thought was even more of a hint. In my opinion, it was a sharp play but you can't win them all obviously.

 

[tuleythetout]

I wasn't involved in the game, but I agree that logically you made the right call because the Ravens' defense was dominant and the Rams lucked into a lot of their scores. You took a bad beat on that end.

However, I would say that the fact you were taking Ravens +5 for the game when it should have been 7 means you were taking a bad line (and in that situation I would have passed).

So, I wouldn't let it make you gun-shy because you analyzed it right. I'd just be more leery about taking the worst of it.

 

[captain#5]

Guys thanks for the input.Tuleythetout, I am not trying to educate you or mouth off, but 2nd half lines is 0-0 so you can't look at the game line.It is not a BAD line, maybe it is a undervalued line.If you think that is a bad line, then you should have made big MONEY ON SUNDAY at the half.Oakland was winning 21-10.The Jets are favored -3.5, which means you can now have the JETS +7.5.Well I liked the Jets -3 and -1.70 in the money line for the game.So if I liked that, then I'd love taking +7.5, which I did! Push -3,win money line,win +7.5.
Speaking of bad lines----SD 28 Minnesota 14 at the half.Minny goes off at 4.5 or 5.The half time line is Minny -6 which means (I know you know how to add) SD -8 to win your new wager.Hey wait I was getting +5 with SD for the game,now I gotta lay -8.Is that a bad line? The bet was never in doubt! It is not a question of bad lines.
2ndHalf lines as a whole in college and semi-pro football are anywhere from Pickem right on up 3 points.Anytime a heavy or light favorite is down at halftime, they WILL always be a favorite unless weather or key injuries fall into the line.So if the favorite is down at halftime,the line will ALWAYS be a bad number, right? The key is getting value.
The Ravens were hot in 2nd half lines the last 3 or 4 weeks as they covered was another reason to make the play.
Halftime lines are the way to go TODAY, maybe not in 3 years beacause the oddsmakers have not really figured it out yet to have a sharp line, so the player has a slight advantage.
Just food for the thought.Good luck to you.

 

[Co-Captain]

Aloha Cap,

In my opinion, I felt that getting a fg with the Rams for the 2nd half, was better than the game line. The reason I liked the second half line at -3, even with watching everything that went on , indicating Balt. possible upset. I still had to go with the Rams at -3.

The second half is like a new game. I know their are alot of people who look at the first half as an indication of what will happen in the second half. That is sometimes true, but it most often will not be reflected in the points scored in the 2nd half, this I think you already know. The second half, teams will make adjustments and will most times change their gameplan or not. You really just don't know. but in yesterdays situation going into the second half, their were other intangibles that would dictate and give you more added advantage with the Rams.

Bollers injury, was probably the biggest advantage, that one could have to sway towards playing the Rams. I looked at it this way, having a new QB entering the game for the 2nd half is not a good thing, no matter how good the Ravens Def. was playing. The off will still need to score points, because it is highly unlikely that the Rams will be shut out of scoring. Even if they didnt score a td in the second half, you had to believe that this off can at least put them into field goal range and that would be enough. With the uncertainty of knowing how Redman was going to handle stepping into the second half game, it became a big negative against Balt. and a positive situation for me to take the Rams for the 2nd half. Adding to my incentive to take the Rams were these facts, Rams at home, Rams high potent off., no matter how Rams adjusted to the Ravens def. would not take away from their high potency, but you have to feel that the Ravens def playing well as it was was not going to change a thing. This was what I also felt gave the Rams an advantage , its like ok I know what they will do the second half , but this is how we are going to overcome it.

The only way, I would have considered taking the Ravens in the second half. Would have been if Boller didnt get hurt , and if the line was like you said a bit higher , over 3.5. But in this situation with the major events that did happen , hard not to take the Rams -3. But that was my outlook and reasoning behind why I took the Rams -3 for the 2nd half. I dont know if it helps you, but I think any other opinions cant hurt. Good Luck to you next week, Aloha CC.

 

[tuleythetout]

captain #5:
Geez, good thing you were "not trying to educate you or mouth off" or your reply would have been really condescending.

You didn't tell me anything I didn't already know about halftime betting. And the only reason I brought up the point about bad lines is because YOU wrote the following:

"The line for the game is 7.The Rams are up 2 and they are favored only by 3? This means they have to win by 5.Why were they not 4 or 5 or 5.5 point favs in the 2nd half?"

It seems to me that you were saying that the line should have been, to quote you again, "4 or 5 or 5.5"...so why would you only take +3? THAT is the definition of taking a bad line.